Election History
North Carolina has jumped around in recent elections when it comes to backing a candidate for president. While traditionally a Republican state, the Democratic party has experienced its share of wins (and losses) in the state. Barack Obama managed to win the it in 2008, but in 2012 Mitt Romney won it back, and Donald Trump held it in 2016. North Carolina is often seen as highly competitive.
In the lead up to 2016, North Carolina was generally rated as a tossup by political rating groups meaning that neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton had an advantage over each other. Trump won the state with a margin of 3.66 percent over Clinton. Trump’s numbers were only slightly lower than Romney’s win in 2012 while Clinton saw a loss of over two percent of support that Obama received four years prior leaving her with about 46 percent of the vote.
By Ali Zifan – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48101414 No Changes Were Made.
2020 Outlook
Just under a month from the November election, North Carolina is currently keeping consistent with previous cycles and shows a close race between Joe Biden and Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average gives Biden just over a two-point lead over Trump. As a result, their forecast also declares the state very slightly favoring Biden with his odds of winning the state being 58 in 100 and Trump at 42 in 100. In simpler terms, this race’s outcome is far from certain and it could go in either candidates’ favor.
With current probabilities, North Carolina is a state that Biden can afford to lose but hopes to win. Without North Carolina, Trump could likely struggle to win the electoral college based on how competitive other swing states are. Minority voter turnout will play a key role in determining the winner of the state. Minority voters were instrumental in Obama’s 2008 win in the states and they kept him competitive in 2012. Decreased minority turnout is largely cited for Clinton’s 2016 loss in the state. Now, Biden’s campaign is aiming to energize voters to turnout and deliver him a wing while Trump’s campaign is focusing on solidifying the Republican base to carry Trump to victory once again.
Next Week
Up next will be an analysis of Arizona, one of the fastest-changing states in the country. Comment your thoughts respectfully below and share your perspective.
The Political Analysis 
I really enjoyed reading this post! Its not surprising that less minority voters would have come to the polls for Clinton when compared to Obama. While many can say it was a result of her not being charismatic enough as a leader, I feel that the reasoning may be two fold. One can also look at the fact that Trump was so much more appealing in that state to many voters since it was already a red state in the election in 2012 as you said. It will be very interesting to see how this state swings.
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Thanks for the comment Karnav,
Yes, charisma is a great asset to have when you’re in the public eye all the time like many politicians are. It will be interesting to see if Trump can revise his image to help him in the state or not.
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Great post, Lucas. I feel there has been a rise in the number of swing states in the south in recent years. I’m thinking of states like Virginia, North Carolina and now even Texas. What’s driving this change? Many of these states were once solidly red.
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